Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Blog Post #6: Dan Ariely's Explains Explains How We Are Predictably Irrational. What Does This Mean For Southwest?


Dan Ariely is a behavioral economist who has studied the way that individuals behave in the world. Whether we look at our markets or the dating world, you name it, at some point Dan has probably done a study on it or can refer you to the work of one of his colleagues, explaining with great detail how we are sometimes predictably irrational. The work of economists like Ariely helps us to understand how people behave under certain circumstances, particularly ones that effect our wallets. Through gaining deeper understandings of how humans behave when faced with different incentives and asymmetries in information, we equip ourselves with the best tools to make decisions that optimize efficiency on both, the behalfs of producers, and consumers. Businesses and individuals who understand behavioral economics are at a clear advantage in the market place because they are able to manipulate the way consumers behave to a large degree.


Now, obviously there are simple incentives that send clear signals to individuals in life and the market place, but Arielys real gift to economics can be seen when directs us to look at how people behave under circumstances that do not give clear incentives or signals. One of the examples Ariely provides in his book "Predictably Irrational" demonstrates cases in which individuals behave irrationally in the masses. He explains the power comparisons options has on the behalf of the consumer or individuals dealt with various propositions.


Don't dismiss this first example I'm about to discuss because confusing Ariely's book for a scientific journal of a sociopath would be a mistake; what Ariely finds holds relevance later when we look at how consumers make purchasing decisions. First he explains comparisons that individuals make when it comes to picking a partner. Studies discussed in his book explain that individuals who are accompanied by comparatively less attractive friends appear significantly more attractive to prospective partners. This discussion brings him back to what he initially set out to find; can trends in how we compare the attractiveness of prospective partners extend into our markets? You bet they do.


Ariely goes on to explain the concept of a "decoy" in the context of the market place, specifically in pricing. He talks about a popular magazine company called "The Economist" who used a very interesting marketing strategy that surely increased profits for the company.



In this situation there are three options. "The Economist" want's to sell a product at a price that maximises what consumers will be willing to spend. the options are to buy the magazine subscription, the online subscription, or the magazine and online subscriptions combined. In this case we would call the print subscription option the "decoy" because on comparison the option to buy the combined subscription appears to be more valuable than the option to buy the print only subscription given that they are priced the same while one option provides more mediums of content than the other. Having the print only option price to compare to the print and web combined option illustrates that the combined option is more valuable. When we look at the web only option we don't have another purchasing option to compare it with. Given all of this it is thought in theory that a consumer would be most inclined to purchase the third option, just like an individual may pick the person who is relatively the most attractive person in the room to be their partner. When we compare options in our lives we are only able to asses value relative to what is presented to us. Here, "The Economist" sells the profit maximizing duel subscription that they want to sell more of.

Dan Ariely's work and the work of many other economists alike are the keys to unlocking marketing strategies that get consumers to behave in a ways that are preferable and the work also can help consumers be aware of the sellers intent.  
   

Blog Post #5: How do we define the type of market that the airline industry is apart of?


When we look at the airline industry, it's clear that the market is different from many others. Specially, when we consider how drastically changes at one airline effect the entire industry, we can see that the industry is dominated by a few large competitors. Also, there are significant barriers to entry in the airline industry when we consider the cost of entry and the competitive forces of the large already existing airlines in the market.



The airline industry's market would be best described as an oligopoly. The characteristics of an oligopoly market mainly are a market dominated by a hand full of large firms partnered with high barriers to entry. Recognizing the type of market that the airline industry operates within is important when we think about some of the variables that influence performance. One of the common themes that we see in the airline industry is one that is full of mergers. In the industry there are a few large competitors that control the majority of the market and then there are many other small companies that control less of the market. when a smaller company is not preforming as well as it needs to be in order to stay in the market, we often see mergers where a dominant force in the market buys the under-performing company.


This pie chart shows how the airline industry in the U.S. is dominated by American Airlines, Delta, Southwest and United. On comparison, the other many airlines that operate in the industry make up a small amount of the market.




Southwest Airlines, (the largest domestic carrier in the U.S.), bought a smaller struggling company called AirTran back in 2011. Rather than liquidating the company, AirTran management decided to sell the company to Southwest for 1.4 billion (Bureau of Transportation Statistics). This merger was a huge undertaking for Southwest particularly in regards to how it was going to have to deal with the existing staff at AirTran. Seniority liberties for the integrated AirTran pilots made up most of the major complications throughout the transition, but for the most part the merger has gone smoothly, as the chart to the right  suggests.

When we look at different market places we need to be able to decipher what type of markets we are dealing with in order to know what operating in the industry entails, especially in terms of competition and accessibility. Hopefully this blog is helpful in it approach to discussing what type of market the airline industry operates within.  



 



     

Monday, March 7, 2016

Blog Post #4: Southwest

The airline industry is one of the most competitive and unpredictable industries that exists. It's an industry made up of many companies all jockeying for the largest market share possible all while facing a variety of unpredictable variables that carry huge consequences or rewards. Fluctuations in the prices of commodities such as oil, changes in travel behavior, gate costs, performance, you name it, someone at Southwest is worried about it and on alert 24/7. 

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=cartoon+walking+a+tightrope&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwirrqy21q7LAhVD2R4KHUw_AjEQ_AUIBygB&biw=1174&bih=659#imgrc=ipvzvo2dnpRrLM%3A  

With hundreds of competitors internationally and many domestically as well, it's a wonder that carriers are able to compete non-stop on all fronts without interruption. Airlines are fixated on finding a competitive edge over competitors at all times. One way to do this is to offer flights to as many destinations as possible. Southwest grew its list of destinations from none, first to three in Texas, and now to 97 across the country and into several other countries. When services were first being offered through Texas, getting around the state was easier by flight than by car. As a side note, a bit of marketing genius was displayed by Southwest during this earlier time; bumper stickers that said "Fly Southwest. Herb Needs the Money" were plaster on cars all over the state. 

                                                                                   

      https://www.google.com/search?q=southwest+destinations&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjX3peW167LAhXLXR4KHYHTBg4Q_AUIBygB&biw=1174&bih=659#tbm=isch&q=southwest+destinations+2016&imgrc=1xg81_bqmguGLM%3A

In order to grow the company Kelleher had to fight for rights to gates at airports across the country. Legal battles have been fought at every turn all in an effort to make the list of destinations offered a little bit longer. These battles are especially impressive when we look back to when the company was  first starting out and played the role of an underdog. Kelleher, a law school graduate, was faced with legal battles every time he wanted to use a new gate. Larger competitors would understandably try to make it as difficult for Southwest as possible, but there wasn't much that could deter the drive of a leader like Kelleher. 

 

To learn more about Southwest's founder take a look at the link attached here http://www.texasmonthly.com/articles/a-boy-and-his-airline/

As the companies list of destinations grew, the success that came along had much to do with the way the company was led, particularly in how the messages and attitudes projected through marketing appealed to the everyday individual. Average people could side with a service that was presented in a way that was affordable and informal. The combination is what make southwest different than competitors who are a little more tense or formal. Now, as Southwest has developed, its business platform and informal appeal help carry it forward as the brand becomes more accessible to a larger number of people. Keep in mind that the company is now the largest domestic carrier.


 

   

Blog Post #3: Southwest Commodities Trading

Blog Post #3: Southwest Commodities Trading

One of the most important inputs a company like Southwest worries about outside of paying it's employees is paying for jet fuel. I'm interested in Southwest's commodities trading tactics because using the proper investing strategies can be what separates companies in the airline industry from each other. Much of Southwest's success and stability depends on the companies ability to hedge for the lowest fuel/oil prices possible. Just to be clear, a commodities hedge fund buys and sells commodities such as oil. The way Southwest's hedge fund group invests depends on what they think oil prices will do in the future; if they think prices in the future are going to be higher, they buy sooner rather than later, and on the other hand, if they think prices will be lower in the future they buy later rather than sooner (called a "long"). Also, the investing party can sell futures ("short") in the future if they predict that the market price for oil will go up in order to make profit. To insure against a loss in the hedge fund industry there are a number of risk spreading techniques companies use. The risk in this dynamic has to do with the price you pay in a futures contract. The contract negotiates the price the company pays for its oil and the price it sells at. If hedge fund managers for Southwest are successful, they will have negotiated prices that purchase the rights to oil in the future at a lower price than the actual market price will be. The cheaper oil price that's established can help lower costs for the company or it can generate profits from shorting at a price that is favorable.

 http://images.bidnessetc.com/img/960-crude-oil-trading-low-on-monday.jpg

How Southwest preforms in the hedge fund industry influences its stock value tremendously and selling stocks to investors is very important when it comes to being able to compete against other companies. Making an investment opportunity more marketable is dependent on what people think other investors will think the stock is worth in the future, and a great way to keep investors optimistic is to have a hedge fund group that preforms well and gets the companies commodities for the cheapest possible price.

http://media.ycharts.com/charts/e10af075590920fca1905d9924af1d92.png 
http://media.ycharts.com/charts/e10af075590920fca1905d9924af1d92.png


- http://marketrealist.com/2015/10/wall-street-think-southwest-airlines/ 

In the link above, we can see how Southwest's stock value is effected by its trading performances. Santiago Solar, the author of the article in the attached link, explains that the trading price for a stock in Southwest has the potential to grow by 34%. He also explains that of 20 wall street annalists covering southwest stock, 13 of them have rated it as "buy" and only three have rated it a "sell".

Marketing a investment opportunity is a tricky game because, how valuable the investment is, is completely dependent on the value of the company of interest as well as what people predict the company's value will be in the future. Given this, we could say that Southwest's hedge fund managers influence the sale of investments as much as the companies marketing department does.

 
 Scott Topping named Executive VP of Finance at Southwest
http://www.ksbe.edu/imua/article/scott-topping-named-executive-vp-of-finance/

Here's another interesting article about how Southwest is doing.
 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/28/business/worldbusiness/28iht-hedge.4.8517580.html?_r=0